The readers' room: The Black Swan

Have just finished reading 'The Black Swan'. Interesting book however, the author seem to be hell bent over proving bell curve wrong. In doing so, I believe he misses on making a balanced argument on his own 'black swan' concept. The idea of forecasting techniques and forecasters being wrong is agreeable but Dan Gilbert in his book 'Stumbling on Happiness' does a better job of explaining the same. The concept is quite simple. Focus on the large event (highly improbable) which may change your life forever. The author takes examples from Stock Market and surely black swans may happen in such volatile environment however, its difficult to see this happening in a normal person's life. Furthermore, if you wait for black swan to happen I feel it might be too late. The bell curve can't just be put aside is my opinion.

Overall, it's an interesting read. 4 out of 5.

Book info:
The black swan: the impact of the highly improbableBook 2160/Completed: 2/23/2008 Author: Taleb, Nassim. Published: New York : Random House, c2007. Subject covered : Forecasting, Randomness, Uncertainty, Chance.